Apple is set to clock a 16-22% on year growth in smartphone shipments in India in 2020, sharply higher than a 4% rise in 2019 and a 44% fall in 2018, driven largely by older generation of its iPhones like XR and 11 and the latest iPhone 12 mini, say analysts.
They added that Apple’s expected growth comes at a time the overall smartphone market in India is starting at its first ever contraction due to Covid-induced supply chain issues and tightened consumer spending. d.
Apple is set to outperform the global smartphone market and the Indian market will be in line with its global performance.
“We believe that this will be the strongest ever lineup for iPhones in India. Apple is likely to capture 2% share in the coming Q4 2020 with the help of bank offers and discounts on older models during the festive season,” Tarun Pathak, associate director at Counterpoint Research said. “We expect Apple to grow 16% over 2019 in terms of shipments in 2020.”
Cyber Media Research (CMR) expects 18-22% yearly growth for iPhone shipments in 2020. “Apple iPhone shipments have been growing strong in Q3 2020 increasing 67% year-on-year, and are primed to increase in the run-up to the festive season. The iPhone SE 2020 and last year’s iPhone 11 are driving the majority of sales currently,” Prabhu Ram, Head – Industry Intelligence Group, CMR said.
Apple will have a wider portfolio of smartphones which starts from the iPhone SE (priced below Rs 40,000) and goes up till iPhone 12 Pro Max. The iPhone 12 mini price starts at Rs 69,900 while iPhone 12 price starts at Rs 79,900. iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max will be available at starting at Rs 119,900 and Rs 129,900, respectively.
The share of the new iPhone within overall Apple sales during the launch quarter typically increases year-on-year and this year it will be the same driven by iPhone 12 mini, which is the most affordable smartphone in the 12 series.
“The uptick is due to the faster availability of new models in India and partially driven by an increased mix of hardcore Apple users in India who are willing to replace as soon as the launch happens,” Pathak said.
Analysts, however, said that the prices of the iPhone Pro and Pro Max are still steep for certain users willing to shift from the Android camp at least in India.
“India pricing is not very aggressive. It appears that stabilised Rupee has been negated by 5G availability and supply chain issues. It will be tough for Apple to find upgrade volumes for Pro devices,” said Navkendar Singh, research director at IDC. Singh, however, believes that iPhone 12 will do better than iPhone 12 Mini since pricing isn’t very steep.
“Overall shipments for Apple will rise but it will happen because of aggressive offers and price relook for iPhone SE, XR and 11. Not due to 12 per se,” Singh added.
“…we have also seen for the three successive years that with the launch of new iPhones there is a surge in sales in older generation iPhones as well and these are the iPhones that normally compete with the Android camp as well in the premium segment,” Pathak said.
The iPhone 12 Mini, iPhone 11, XR, SE 2020 will be competing strongly with the Android camp while the sales of iPhone 12 Pro, Pro Max will be driven by replacement buyers especially from the camera upgrade point of view, Pathak added.